Wednesday, August 16, 2006


Many of the projections that the media, rock stars, and grant greedy academics are using to build a ‘consensus’ on human influenced (lets call it anthropogenic global warming) global warming are based on mathematical models. As a student of economics I have a great appreciation of mathematical models. They are very compact and precise ways to express ideas with logical consistency. However, they are not necessarily scientific, and like any logical argument, they are only as good as their assumptions.

Many of the models that ‘predict’ or ‘explain’ anthropogenic global warming include parameters that are essentially assumptions about which we have little firm data to be certain about. These include the effects of cloud formations, precipitation, the role of oceans, and the sun.

Inherent in almost all dialogue and reporting about what these models imply is the assumption that human behavior is a large contributor to global warming. Although the climate has been warming over the last century, most of the warming occurred before 1940 (when temperatures in the arctic were actually just as warm or warmer than they are today). This was in the very early stages of modern industrialization and hence human production of greenhouse gases and CO2 on a large scale. This assumption about human influence is not supported by any empirical evidence, despite its widespread use as anecdotal support for what is implied by mathematical models.

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