Saturday, August 08, 2009

Can Somone Tell Me What Duck's Unlimited is All About

On the Duck's Unlimited Web page I found the following information about their support of the Clean Water Restoration Act.

See related stories & Opinions :

From cattlenetwork here and the National Cattleman's Beef Association here.

The Heritage Foundation Blog

The Ohio Environmental Law Blog



This is the letter I wrote questioning their support and asking for clarification about their principles. I may have just had the wrong impression about what this organization stands for. I thought they were a free market conservation group.

************


Although I can see how this legislation may benefit Wetlands, I must have gotten the wrong impression about Ducks Unlimited. I thought this was an organization based on private efforts by private citizens, landowners, and hunters exercising free choice to donate and contribute to conservation efforts while respecting private property rights.

I thought that the name 'Ducks Unlimited' implied that with private property, markets, and caring support from members we could maintain a sustainable and unlimited waterfowl population.

Is it the philosophy of Duck's Unlimited to take a 2 pronged approach of a regulatory and a private market solution? If so, what does the organization value most, private property rights, markets, and constitutional government, or expansion of federal government. If a government power grab helps wetlands ( which I am skeptical) at the expense of private property and individual liberty it appears by supporting the CWRA Ducks's Unlimited has come down on the side of more government.

Shouldn't this organization favor cooperative solutions over the use of force?

Thursday, July 09, 2009

A Second Stimulus

I have yet to hear a discussion from our leaders about how a fiscal (spending) stimulus will work now when similar policies failed during the great depression under Roosevelt and Hoover. The first $787 stimulus was passed despite numerous warnings from some of the worlds best and most prominent economists, including Cole & Ohanion, Prescott, Barro, Becker, Rizzo, Mankiw, Sargent, and almost 200 more. When the Michael Jordans and Tiger Woods of the field are stating that the stimulus package flies in the face of over 60 years of macroeconomic research, the supporters of the policy, or the media, or someone needs to be discussing this as a debatable idea.

Current evidence indicates that the first stimulus has not worked as it appears to have had no influence on unemployment - see graph below or link here.



Source here via Greg Mankiw


So now, supporters of a second stimulus have to explain, after the New Deal stimulus spending failed in the 30's, and the first $787 stimulus failed , why do we expect a 2nd stimulus will work? I aknowledge that there is a lag time for stimulus spending, but that only strengthens the argument AGAINST a second stimulus. If we have not had enough time for this to work, then we don't know if we truly need a second stimulus or not. If we need more spending now on infrastructure to create more jobs as Pennsylvania Governor Rendell says ( from TheHill.com) , then why didn't we spend more of the $787 billion on things that would create jobs the first time. Why not reallocate what we have already committed in the $787 billion to these ends?
Instead of ‘returning to the failed policies that got us where we are today’ perhaps we should consider other policies that have shown success in the past. I’m referring to lowering marginal tax rates and reducing the corporate tax rate.


The basic argument for cuts in marginal taxes is that lower tax rates provide an incentive for increased economic activity. In addition, lower taxes reduce the incentive for the wealthiest Americans to engage in activities to avoid paying taxes . Why pay high management fees, and risk lower returns if a reduction in taxes will lead to higher after tax returns than what you will get in a tax shelter?

Is there any evidence for these supply side effects? Do we actually see increases in economic activity and increases in revenue in the face of cuts in marginal tax rates?

In his book 'Vision of the Annointed,' Thomas Sowell provides data from the US Budget Historical tables ( I checked these ) indicating that with the Regan tax cuts, we saw revenue increases.

This is corroborated by Lawrence Lindsey ( 1987) who found that for those earning > $200K per year, we saw the following increases in collections:

1982 – 3%
1983 – 9%
1984 – 23%

( see Lindsey, Lawrence B. 1987. “Individual Taxpayer Response to Taxcuts, 1982-1984.” J. of Public Economics 33 (July) 173-206 , also noted in: Robert Barrow. Macroeconomics- 5th Edition MIT Press 1997 )

And for the recent Bush tax cuts: ( see this from the Wall Street Journal )

"Taxes paid by millionaire households more than doubled to $274 billion in 2006 from $136 billion in 2003. No President has ever plied more money from the rich than George W. Bush did with his 2003 tax cuts. These tax payments from the rich explain the very rapid reduction in the budget deficit to 1.9% of GDP in 2006 from 3.5% in 2003." ( see historical tables link above )

Also, straight from the historical tables provided by the office of management and budget you will see that from 2004-2007 there was a 25% surge in tax revenues, ( in face of tax cuts) which was the largest 3 yr surge since 1966.

Further evidence is given by President Obama's chief of the council of economic advisers, Christina Romer. She finds that a dollar of tax cuts raises the G.D.P. by about $3. According to this research the benefit from tax cuts is more than twice what other researchers say we get from spending increases.

Dr. Rand Paul on the Glenn Beck Show



ADDITIONAL LINKS ON NATIONAL HEALTH CARE

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Sarah Palin Inarticulate?

Is Sarah Palin inarticulate? On what basis of comparison? Would this be an issue if she were to actually run for president?

Maybe not. Despite both President Obama's confusion about basic economics, gaffs, and inarticulate mishaps, he was quite successful in his campaign.
For example see here, here, and here. This is not to bash or disrespect the POTUS, but to illustrate how unfair or biased this criticism of Sarah Palin has been.


As far as Palin- what happened to all of the interviews like this( On Larry Kudlow)- where are the gaffs? This is inarticulate? ( this is prior to Governor Palin joining the ticket- so no tricks)

If all you saw of the campaign were the above videos of President Obama and the above video of Governor Palin, who would you judge as being 'inarticulate'? This is exactly the flavor of the campaign coverage provided by the national media, and illustrates exactly why so many Americans have such a poor perception of who is or isn't 'articulate.'

To continue with this criticism of Sarah Palin, while dodging the issues like taxes, spending,the stimulus, regulation, inflation, and natural resources is intellectually dishonest on the part of all of her critics, political opponents, and anyone in the media that continues to play this game.

The Road to Serfdom And The Car That Will Take Us There

See The Environmental Motor Company Making Detroit a subsidiary of the Sierra Club ( Wall Street Journal)



Saturday, July 04, 2009

Freedom Rallies: What are they about?

Freedom rallies, also known as tea parties by some, have been proliferate these past few months. What are they all about?

One of the first criticisms that comes to mind is 'where were all of these protesters under Bush'? No one was happy about the expansion of medicare and entitlement spending under Bush, and who can deny that the 1st round of lump sum tax cuts were poorly structured- although the the later cut in marginal taxes did work well- nor were very many of the tea party protesters likely very happy about the tariffs that came and went under Bush. Bush was not successful in reforming social security, and he should have vetoed the job and opportunity crushing minimum wage increases- if only to take a symbolic stance against poorly designed policies. For many of the protesters, I assume that president Bush left a lot to be desired. We too often forget the outrage over Bush starting the bailouts.

Unfortunately, I think many of them came to accept this brand of 'compassionate conservatism' or 'bipartisanship' to be a reality under the two party system. Electing John McCain would have meant more of these bipartisan ('maverick' as he called it) policies - like McCain- Feingold, cap and trade, and taxing our healthcare benefits. Sarah Palin was popular only because she was truly a Washington outsider, and seemed to bring balance to the ticket as someone willing to stand up to business as usual in DC. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) for her, McCain lost.

I think these parties represent a referendum on all parties, they are sending the message to everyone that many Americans are tired of bailouts, and hearing that the financial crisis is the result of deregulation under Bush ( even though they have not cited a single act of deregulation by congress since Gramm-Leach-Bliley in the 90's) or that it is a crisis of capitalism (basically our own fault).The participants are outraged to be punished for it with higher taxes, bigger government, inflation, and unprecedented deficits.

I think many of the participants are tired of having their intelligence insulted in this manner. They are looking for leadership- from whatever party- that is willing to look at the facts, and provide a solution as the result of carefully weighing and considering all of the evidence. They are sick of the big government ideology and bipartisanship that has brought us to where we are today.

I think the last straw may have been with the passage of the $787 billion stimulus package. We were told that it was necessary, as we faced the greatest financial crisis since the great depression. It may have been more accepted if those favoring this massive increase in spending could have offered some reasoning as to why this would work today, even though similar policies failed us during the great depression under Roosevelt and Hoover. This was passed despite numerous warnings from some of the worlds best and most prominent economists, including Cole & Ohanion, Prescott, Barro, Becker, Rizzo, Mankiw, Sargent, and almost 200 more. When the Michael Jordans and Tiger Woods of the field are stating that the stimulus package flies in the face of over 60 years of macroeconomic research, the supporters of the policy, or the media,or someone needs to be discussing this as a debatable idea. It is the burden of the supporters and the media to explain why this will work, and while all of the other evidence is flawed. I don't recall any of the supporters of the legislation having a discussion like this- I don't remember seeing or hearing mention of any of these economists' research being discussed or debated on the news in relation to the stimulus. In short, I think the protesters probably feel like they have been lied to to a great extent about the stimulus and current budget deficits, or greatly insulted by the arrogance of its supporters. Not only are they likely upset with the republicans and democrats that have supported these policies, but they are also growing more and more impatient with a national media that has failed to ask tough questions.

To add insult to injury, evidence indicates that the projections of how much better off we would be under passage of the stimulus have turned out to be wrong. Unemployment has surpassed what it was projected to have been without passing a $787 billion stimulus package.



Source here.


The excuse seems to be 'we didn't know how bad it really was.' This excuse might be acceptable, were it not for the big I told you so coming from the hundreds of economists listed above. And the original projections did account for the lag we would expect from fiscal policy, so the excuse of 'giving it more time' isn't really much more acceptable.

Given what we have experienced through the bailouts and the stimulus package, many of the participants in the freedom rallies are even more skeptical of the policies to come such as national healthcare and cap and trade.


Those participating in the freedom rallies across the country this past independence day weekend have a lot grievances on their plate, and a lot of questions they want answered. Will they get answers, or will they be arrogantly dismissed as fringe radicals, closed minded, anti-progressive sore losers? Will they be answered by an offer to have a serious discussion? Will they be offered evidence, or cowboy style ideological shots from the hip?

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Agriculture, Obesity, and Poverty

The agriculture industry has and will continue to come under attach for contributing to obesity. These attacks are based on narrow special interests and ideology, but they will be used to justify more regulation and an attack on the personal liberties of millions of Americans. It will be done in the name of protecting the poor from themselves and the greed of agribusiness.

Back in 2007 in the New York Times Micahel Pollan makes the following comment:

"So how is it that today the people with the least amount of money to spend on food are the ones most likely to be overweight?

This perverse state of affairs is not, as you might think, the inevitable result of the free market.

Like most processed foods, the Twinkie is basically a clever arrangement of carbohydrates and fats teased out of corn, soybeans and wheat — three of the five commodity crops that the farm bill supports, to the tune of some $25 billion a year. (Rice and cotton are the others.) For the last several decades — indeed, for about as long as the American waistline has been ballooning — U.S. agricultural policy has been designed in such a way as to promote the overproduction of these five commodities, especially corn and soy."

Mr. Pollan has it all wrong on a number of accounts. I'm not here to argue about the distortions created by this or that component of any particular farm bill, but the farm bills are structured around these crops because that is what we grow, they are the staples that feed the world. We don't grow these crops because they are included in the farm bill, they are included in the farm bill because we grow these crops. Eliminate the farm bill, and yes the free market will still call for American farmers to grow the staples that feed the world.

Mr. Pollan and many of his adherents are not interested in what foods free markets ( or lets be more precise- the foods that free people) dictate. Most of these food activists would love to see a farm bill or other legislation that penalizes our efforts to feed the world with the environmentally superior technologies and science based techniques we are using today, and subsidize the production of fruits and vegetables and politically correct foods.

Also is the concern that the 'poor' are choosing to eat these unhealthy fast foods and processed foods. That may certainly be the case, but we should really be concerned with overall health, not just obesity. While the poor may be dealing with some issues of obesity, research ( from the national bureau of economic research) indicates that the relationship between socioeconomic status and health is weak. Still, if we are going to be concerned with obesity, we should be concerned with all factors contribute to obesity, not just the hand that feeds us. As indicated in a recent piece in the Rocky Mountain News, a study from the 2007 International Journal of Obesity concludes, “The obesity epidemic is often speculatively blamed on fast food, when the actual evidence shows very little, if any, association of fast food with weight gain.”

To concentrate on diet alone, and omit exercise will lead to perverse results, but it can justify a lot of government intrusion on our valued freedoms.

One approach is to inadvertandly tax small businesses and consumers with labeling requirements as done recently in Tennessee. ( See the Tennessean)

"Providing consumers with accurate, easy to understand nutritional information about the content of the food they are purchasing is a common-sense measure that could help Tennessee address its obesity epidemic" Bredesen wrote.

Governor Bredessen, common sense tells us that the gravy and fried chicken at the local diner or national franchise probably is loaded with calories and fat, labeled or not. Will this change the habits of a marginal number of people? Maybe, but at great costs with minimal benefit.

The case is similar with fat taxes. Research from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University indicates that the taxes required to have any real affect on obesity would be in the 1200 percent range, and even if taxes eliminated ( in this case soda) consumption, the impact on obesity would be very small. The study concludes that "the sensitivity of individuals to changes in relative food prices is
not sufficient to make “fat taxes” a viable tool to lower obesity."

Taking on the challenge of 'fighting obesity' in the name of helping the poor ( or reducing climate change) is likely misguided, or for some activists maybe even disingenuous. In the words of economist Thomas Sowell, many of the arguments for these policies 'invoke the name and mystique of science in order to override other people's choices."

We should be thankful that we live in a country were people of modest means have access affordable energy dense foods. We can't forget that fast food provides jobs and opportunities for advancement for millions! In producing staples like corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, pork, and chicken our farmers are utilizing modern science and technology ( like biotech) to improve nutritional quality and minimize our impact on the environment.

Many of the ideas being proposed by food activists and righteous eaters if ever implemented will truly bite the hand that feeds us.

The best approach is to maintain policies that support rather than hinder the spontaneous order of the market that allocates resources and provides incentives to produce the necessary technologies for better food, a better environment, and the economic growth that reduces poverty.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Green Jobs

Recently there has been a lot of hype created regarding the creation of 'green jobs' and even excitement that the creation of green jobs may help stimulate the economy. This may be counter to what we would expect given basic economic theory.

Recent research by Gabriel Calzada Álvarez (link) indicates that job losses may result from what economists refer to as the broken window fallacy.

'we find that for every renewable energy job that the State manages to finance...that the U.S. should expect a loss of at least 2.2 jobs on average, or about 9 jobs lost for every 4 created, to which we have to add those jobs that non-subsidized investments with the same resources would have created.'
'Each “green” megawatt installed destroys 5.28 jobs on average elsewhere in the economy: 8.99 by photovoltaics, 4.27 by wind energy, 5.05 by mini-hydro.'

With the broken window fallacy, as the analogy goes, breaking the baker's window leads to jobs for glass repair workers, and thus acts like a stimulus to the economy. It is a fallacy in that it does not consider the jobs that other wise would have been created had the baker not had to fix his window, but expanded his business or invested the funds. Jobs may be created on both accounts, but who is to say which jobs create the most value for the economy.

If green jobs are created by taking money and resources away from other businesses to subsidize green enterprises (breaking windows) then they are not created without consequence.

Green jobs created by government are not equivalent to those created by the free market. A recent story from the Charlotte Observer points out that according to a study by Pew Charitable Trusts "Green-jobs growth has occurred without consistent regulatory support... "All the states that grew were responding directly to consumer demand."

A prime example of green job creation via the free market can be found when we look at modern agriculture. As pointed out in a recent AgWeb blog post 'Biotechnology: An Agriculture Success Story' recent research from PG Economics indicates that biotech crops have greatly reduced agriculture's carbon footprint and reduced pesticide applications. For additional peer reviewed research related to the 'greening' of the ag industry see the references below.

Green jobs created by the biotech industry are created voluntarily. Investors and entrepreneurs recognized that the money they invested in biotech would yield more benefits to society than any alternative at the margin. Otherwise they would have invested their money elsewhere.

When government tries to create green jobs, it has to arbitrarily take money from one place and put it somewhere else. Because they base their decision on the limited knowledge and preferences of at most a few voters, politicians, and bureaucrats instead of market returns, they have no way of knowing whether the additional benefits to society from their program are greater than the costs. ( and they risk destroying more jobs than they create).

If we truly want increased growth, decreased poverty, and improved environmental quality, our best chance is going to be to leverage the power of the 'invisible green hand' and let the market create green jobs where they are needed most. The ag industry has already set the example.


Enterprise and Biodiversity: Do Market Forces Yield Diversity of Life?
David Schap and Andrew T. Young Cato Journal, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Spring/Summer 1999)

A Meta-Analysis of Effects of Bt Cotton and Maize on Nontarget Invertebrates
Michelle Marvier, Chanel McCreedy, James Regetz, Peter Kareiva
Science 8 June 2007:
Vol. 316. no. 5830, pp. 1475 - 1477

Smith, J.S.C.; Smith, O.S.; Wright, S.; Wall, S.J.; and Walton, M. (1992)
‘‘Diversity of United States Hybrid Maize Germplasm as Revealed by
Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphisms.’’ Crop Science 32: 598–604

Munkvold, G.P. et al . Plant Disease 83, 130-138 1999.

Dowd, p.J. Economic Entomology. 93 1669-1679 2000.

Miller, Henry I, Conko, Gregory, & Drew L. Kershe. Nature Biotechnology Volume 24 Number 9 September 2006.

Agricultural Outlook ERS/USDA Aug 2006.

Dr. Roger Leonard, LSU Agricultural Center and Dr. Ronald Smith, Auburn University. Research in Bt Cotton


http://www.beefusa.org/uDocs/cattlenumbersandbeefproduction347.pdf


Gregory Conko “The Benefits of Biotech” Regulation. Spring 2003

San Diego Center for Molecular Agriculture: Foods from Genetically Modified Organisms

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Food Inc

Steve Cornett of AgWeb sums it up pretty well. My response to his post and commentors:

Thanks for sharing this.These sentiments reflect a basic unbiased, common sense science based response to Food Inc. which from what I gather is turning out to be using the prestige of science as a facade to override other people's choices. As far as where I get my news, I would say, as someone else very well known has said, ALL OF THEM. Fox, NPR, ABC, CBS Bloomberg, CNN, CSPAN, NYT, WSJ, WP, etc. Isn't it kind of silly to list all of these sources this day in age. ALL OF THEM.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Taking Up for Monsanto




Several Points:

1) Bringing up DDT isn't the best grounds to stand on from a humanitarian standpoint. More lives have been lost as a result of the DDT ban than saved.

2) Increased use of Roundup is a bad thing? Roundup Ready technology has allowed for glyphosate herbicide to substitute for 7.2 million pounds of other chemicals that are more toxic and persistent in the environment.

According to a recent study,biotech crops have decreased the environmental impact associated with herbicide and insecticide use on the area planted to biotech crops by 17.2%

3) The number of farmers that don't use biotech seeds is diminishing. That is true and it is a worldwide phenomena. The largest increases are actually among subsistence farmers in the developing world. They are able to produce safer, more vigorous and resource efficient crops all while saving costs. The idea that this technology is being forced upon them is specious at best.

As far as 'contamination' is concerned, the technology to prevent it exists. The idea of a 'terminator' gene that would prevent environmental contamination has been trumped by the groups opposed science based agriculture, and the technology has never been used as a result.

4) For peer reviewed research regarding biotech foods, see this link.
Another exhaustive look at this issue can be found here.
The research is actually proliferate.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Got (Green) Milk?

Another example of the 'Invisible Green Hand' at work. This time in the dairy industry. See link here.

Excerpt:

"The study shows that the carbon footprint for a gallon of milk produced in 2007 was only 37 percent of that produced in 1944. Improved efficiency has enabled the U.S. dairy industry to produce 186 billion pounds of milk from 9.2 million cows in 2007, compared to only 117 billion pounds of milk from 25.6 million cows in 1944. This has resulted in a 41 percent decrease in the total carbon footprint for U.S. milk production."

Friday, June 12, 2009

Behavioral Economics

A recent story on National Public Radio ( link) gives an overview of a subfield of economics called behavioral economics. Behavioral economics incorporates elements of psychology into economic theory. Some people believe that behavioral economics will improve economic models because it makes a correction for what they believe are errors in the assumptions of classical economics. As a result many people have come to think that behavioral economics may even justify the unprecedented amount of government intervention in the economy and improve our lives.

Continue reading at AgWeb.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Supply and Demand

Click Image for a larger view


Return to AgWeb Blogs Click here.

Friday, April 03, 2009

Fascist Policies

From The American Spectator:

Trying to handle the crisis, the Fascist government nationalized the holdings of large banks which had accrued significant industrial securities. The government also issued new securities to provide a source of credit for the banks and began enlisting the help of various cartels…. The government offered recognition and support to these organizations in exchange for promises that they would manipulate prices in accordance with government priorities. A number of mixed entities were formed… whose purpose it was to bring together representatives of the government and of the major businesses.… This economic model based on a partnership between government and business was soon extended to the political sphere, in what came to be known as corporatism.… The Fascists began to impose significant tariffs and other trade barriers.… Various banking and industrial companies were financially supported by the state.… [The national leader] created the [New Governmental Entity]….[which soon] controlled 20% of [the nation's] industry through government-linked companies.… [The national leader] also adopted a Keynesian policy of government spending on public works to stimulate the economy.… Public works spending tripled to overtake defense spending as the largest item of government expenditure.

the above passage of course describes the economics of fascist Italy in the 1930s,...."The Fascist conception of life," Mussolini wrote, "stresses the importance of the State and accepts the individual only in so far as his interests coincide with the State. It is opposed to classical liberalism [which] denied the State in the name of the individual; Fascism reasserts the rights of the State as expressing the real essence of the individual."


Public-Private partnerships, or the incorporation of private institutions into the state via the regulatory apparatus ( the definition of economic fascism by the way) often benefits 'some' big businesses, and because big business is often associated with the right wing, people often confuse economic fascism with being right wing.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Harper's Keizer, Right vs. Left vs. Center : All Are Irrelevant

Harper's, Garret Keizer:

The mega-irony of the Republican Party: that of all people conservatives ought to have been the first to grasp the dangers of unregulated markets. If big government is susceptible to the abuses of "sinful" human beings, how much more susceptible is a corporate system that is bigger than any government? The right wing of the party ought to have seen this better than the center, and the religious right ought to have seen it best of all. That they failed to see it bespeaks a spiritual bankruptcy beside which the financial plight of an auto industry is as a gnat unto a camel.

A market is certainly much larger than the government but with that comes certain advantages over government as well.

Government, large or small as it may be, is run by greedy politicians and bureaucrats, and relies on their limited knowledge and preferences to make decisions and allocate resources. They are accountable primarily only to the constraints of elections, and the political environment ( their relationships with other politicians and bureaucrats etc.)

Markets are much larger and consist of millions of greedy individuals. Both markets and governments consist of greedy individuals armed with imperfect information. The difference is that with markets, decisions regarding the allocation of resources are based on the knowledge and preferences of millions of individuals, who are all accountable to one another via the checks and balances of the price system. Markets draw from a much larger pool of knowledge and are subject to much greater constraints than governments.

It would seem then that the institution with the larger pool of knowledge and a greater extent of checks and balances would be the one that is less dangerous.

Confusing the issue with republican vs. democrat vs. religious right vs. center etc. is not an effective framework for ' grasping the danger' of one institutional arrangement vs another.

What we have seen recently is chaos introduced by public private partnerships and a mixed economy, making it difficult to identify the 'dangers' of both government and corporate arrangements. By upsetting the checks and balances of the price system, ( primarily via the federal reserve’s longstanding policy of centrally planned interest rates) and the creation of public private partnerships like the government sponsored enterprises such as Fannie and Freddie, incentive structures favoring greater risk and unaccountability have arisen that would not occur in the context of a free market. The result being a housing bubble, bust, and over leveraged and bankrupt financial institutions.

The question now becomes what is the least dangerous response to this situation, and which institutional arrangement will be best equipped with the knowledge and incentives to bring about recovery? Are more distortionary interventions and public/private partnerships i.e. more government, the solution when they have played such a pivotal role in getting us where we are today? Markets have worked well in allocating resources and bringing about prosperity over the past few decades. Is the solution to our current problem to limit their role and ability to do this in the future?

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Antibiotic Use in Agriculture

Some recent articles:

Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety

"applying interventions to control foodborne pathogens in general, rather than focusing on antibiotic-resistant
strains specifically, would have the greatest impact in reducing overall foodborne illnesses."

And from Pork Magazine here.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Laying Out The Facts

From a recent issue of Nature Biotechnology:

"Obama is clearly a science buff, and is really, honestly, into knowing the facts, having them laid out, and then making the best choices that can be mustered," says a policy watcher who was close to the transition team but is outside the federal government. "It is a whole different approach compared to the 'How can we spin this information?' approach of the [Bush administration]. Back to 'honest-to-goodness' curiosity, which is, yes, incredibly refreshing."

This sounds like it could be good for biotech, but I’m not so refreshed. It seems that in the past the approach of those favoring larger government and regulation has been only to embrace the science that supports their interventions. This is more of a feigned or disingenuous intellectual curiosity, which really is no different than ‘How can we spin this information.’ Policy makers often pretend to embrace science, but really are ‘invoking the name and mystique of science to override other peoples choices’ to borrow a phrase from economist Thomas Sowell.

Examples that come to mind include aggressive attempts to combat climate change, despite the lack of consensus with regard to the effectiveness of such policies. They may have established a consensus that the earth is warming , but that is only the first step in a long process of determining an optimal policy procedure. If we are going to tax carbon or establish a market based cap and trade solution, then we need to be able to determine the relevance of our carbon foot print and put a price on it. Price ranges are all over the board, from the credulous Stern reports estimate of $300/ton to William Nordhaus more rigorous estimate of $30/ton ( which is still 10 times the implied price via Kyoto).

Currently there are private exchanges allowing producers to sell carbon offsets in a voluntary market. We should start from there. By the time we figure out the ‘optimal policy’ it is likely that the private market will have taken care of the problem for us as it has many times in the past. Markets and technological change have never allowed us to run out of copper, coal, cattle, oil ,or numerous other natural resources, there is no reason to believe they will allow us to run out of clean air. Some interventions may be necessary, to establish property rights ( which is what cap and trade does) but we are a long way from having the science to support them at this time. As Dr. Nordhaous concludes ‘the central questions about global-warming policy--how much, how fast, and how costly—remain open.’

With the current stimulus package flying in the face of everything we have learned from macroeconomic research over the last 60 years we have more reason to wonder just how much of our future polices will be the result of ‘knowing the facts, having them laid out, and then making the best choices that can be mustered.’

There has certainly been a problem in the past with closed mindedness and fact spinning with regard the environmental and health benefits of biotechnology ( although I would say that this was likely due more to environmental hypochondriacs and those that are averse to capitalism and technology on the left , as opposed to the Bush administration’s policies) However, if the current administration is open minded and curious about the science of agriculture and willing to embrace the evidence and communicate that to others, that will be a great thing. As stated later in the article:

"The EU approach has helped keep African countries from adopting GM [genetically modified] crops," agrees De Greef of EuropaBio. "We hope if the EU and US become less adversarial, it could remove pressure from Africa, which feels forced to choose between US or EU regulations."

The current administration may warm up much better to the Europeans, and as a result win some influence that could be beneficial to the biotech industry. That would be refreshing, as long as we are not selling them on our policies in exchange for some of their more troubling ideas regarding healthcare , taxes, and unemployment.

Source: Nature Biotechnology 27, 237 - 244 (2009)

Thursday, March 05, 2009

National Health Care Links

Markets generate prices which reflect trade-offs based on the knowledge and preferences of millions of individuals, and provide incentives to act on that knowledge to allocate resources. Eliminating the price mechanism through national health care only takes the information and coordination problem away from markets, and places it in the lap of government. With government, decisions are based on the limited knowledge and preferences of a few bureaucrats.


From the Journal of Physicians and Surgeons
Here, ( JPANDS)

"When the government denied Mr. D. the new medicine on the
grounds that the subsidies would cost too much, he offered to pay
the full cost of the medicine himself. He was denied the option to
pay full cost out of his own pocket because, the bureaucrats said, it
would set a bad precedent and lead to unequal access to medicine."

"discoveries of this magnitude are ruled out in Sweden:
In our budget-governed health care there is no room for
curious, young physicians and other [medical]
professionals to challenge established views. New
knowledge is not attractive but typically considered a
problem [that brings] increased costs and disturbances in
today’s slimmed-down health care…. Primarily the system
endorses health care regions and administrative directors
who can show a surplus in their budget. Quality of care and
patients’well-being are second-tier goals."

NATIONAL HEALTH CARE IN CANADA

CBC NEWS here

"Overcrowding in the emergency ward at Royal Columbian Hospital in New Westminster has become so bad that patients are being forced to sleep in closets, says a senior surgeon."

"There are patients that are literally in closets. They're in the nurses' lounge, where the nurses go to have coffee, there are patients in there," said Dr. Bertrand Perey, the hospital's deputy chief of surgery."

"In other words, we have an acute shortage of beds in all wards, surgeries have been cancelled because of this overcrowding and it's becoming a much worse problem than it ever was before."

here

“It’s becoming clearer that Canada’s current health-care system cannot meet the needs of Canadians in a timely and efficient manner, unless you consider access to a waiting list timely and efficient,” Esmail added.

NATIONAL HEALTH CARE IN THE UK

From the BBC :

"Dr Rustin said that before he sees a patient he has to check their postcode to see which health authority pays for their treatment. He says he can only then prescribe the drug if he knows the authority will fund it.

He said authorities have to make a crude calculation.

"They want to show that we can improve duration of life with a new drug and they then try to calculate the extra duration of life," he said.

"If you get an extra year of life for less than £10,000 then it is generally considered that that is a reasonable buy."

From the Telegraph, here ,

From a Patient in the UK:
"In two hours time I have to attend a clinic in a town 15 miles away for follow up mammography. There is no mammography available in the borough where I live,pop 380,000.I worked hard to raise funds for a breast cancer unit in our DGH, that has all now been shipped out to a PFI hospital in another town. This despite a petition of 50,000 names asking for this and various other departments not to be closed"

here ,

"THE controversy over hospital waiting lists will continue to dog the Government in the forthcoming election campaign, a study by mathematicians claims"

here

"To commemorate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the NHS, Gordon Brown plans to introduce a "constitution" setting out the rights and responsibilities of our healthcare system"

What this seems to amount to in practice are the Government's rights to refuse treatment, and the patient's responsibilities to live up to what the state decides are model standards.

UK Daily Mail

"plans by NICE, the Government's drug rationing body, mean no life-extending therapies will be available to new patients because the cost of the most expensive exceeds its threshold of £30,000 per head"

Sunday, March 01, 2009

Hold on to your wallets, and your cell phone!

Back in September Peter Wallison wrote a piece debunking the myth that deregulation was the cause of our financial shortfalls these past couple of years. One thing that he noted was :

"It is correct to say that there has been significant deregulation in the U.S. over the last 30 years, most of it under Republican auspices. But this deregulation--in long-distance telephone rates, air fares, securities-brokerage commissions, and trucking, to name just a few sectors of the economy where it occurred--has produced substantial competition and innovation, driving down consumer costs and producing vast improvements and efficiencies in our economy."

Today I found this piece from Reuters affirming that the current administration is ready to reverse these trends. It's important to remember during this period of zeal for re-regulation that one of the effects of deregulation has been to bring prosperity to the masses. One of the most liberating technologies of the last decade has been affordable telecommunications and internet access.